Revolut’s Growth has become a Double-Edged Sword

Regulators might be a greater challenge than rising interest rates for the aspirations of this up-and-coming bank.
Revolut's Growth Has Become A Double-edged Sword Revolut's Growth Has Become A Double-edged Sword
El Crecimiento De Revolut Es Una De Doble Filo

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Under the leadership of co-founder Nik Storonsky, Revolut is establishing itself as a comprehensive financial hub. “Too big to fail” was the label given to traditional banks during the financial crisis. Now, we might wonder if “too big to succeed” could be the tagline for the ambitious startups aiming to replace them.

Based in the UK and led by co-founder Nik Storonsky, Revolut stands at the forefront in Europe. Its long-awaited financial accounts for 2022, which were recently released, displayed remarkable growth alongside evident growing pains.

Revolut is marketing itself as a one-stop financial shop, unrestricted by product or geographic boundaries. This daring promise captivated private investors who valued it at $33 billion back in 2021. Investors have since revised down their stakes as market interest rates have risen. Yet, regulators might present an even more immediate hurdle to Revolut’s long-term goals.

The revenues hit $1.1 billion in 2022, up 45% from the previous year, and are expected to reach $2 billion this year, with net profit margins forecasted to hit double digits. Costs also surged as the workforce doubled to 6,000 last year. Currently, about 8,000 are employed.

Such metrics are what investors love. However, they are the kind that make regulators nervous, especially when contemplating Revolut’s longstanding application for a UK banking license. Another concern was the qualification of the 2021 accounts after auditors could not fully verify some revenues. In the most recent accounts, auditors noted that previous issues around Revolut’s internal controls had been resolved.

Some investors now value the group closer to $20 billion, which seems more fitting. Assuming Revolut’s growth moderates in 2024, and with a low double-digit net profit margin, it might earn around $300 million. A 50 times multiple, akin to Adyen and higher than Wise, would imply a valuation of $15 billion.

While Revolut has yet to disrupt the market as planned, its broader ambitions could elevate its valuation above those of its pure payment peers. As the fintech landscape continues to evolve, Revolut’s journey is a testament to the dynamic and complex nature of high-growth financial technology firms navigating the twin challenges of market forces and regulatory oversight.

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