Forecasting The Transformative Potential Of Artificial Intelligence In 2024
As we approach 2024, the AI landscape is expected to undergo transformative shifts. A speculated public fallout between Microsoft and OpenAI might become the year’s highlight, possibly driven by competitive dynamics and disagreements. Despite any potential split, OpenAI’s reliance on Microsoft’s infrastructure is likely to continue.
The AI industry may witness a former darling, like Stability AI or Jasper, either go under or be acquired at a significantly reduced price, as the funding environment becomes more stringent. Meanwhile, non-transformer-based AI models, like the computational efficient Mamba, are poised to gain traction, challenging the dominance of transformer models criticized for their “stochastic parrot” nature and high operational costs.
AI-generated misinformation is expected to significantly impact presidential elections in over 40 countries, including the U.S., necessitating a rigorous approach to content moderation. OpenAI’s struggles with detecting AI-written text highlight the complexity of combating AI-generated content.
Generative AI’s foray into the physical world is another anticipated development. Companies like Meta and Microsoft are exploring wearable devices powered by multimodal large language models (LLMs), while secretive projects, such as the one led by Sam Altman with Jony Ive, hint at innovative home devices. Apple’s accelerated efforts in conversational AI suggest a competitive year ahead, with potential breakthroughs in LLM-powered devices, including toys and robots.
Lastly, China’s response to U.S. tech restrictions is critical. The country’s efforts to develop AI chips, potentially rivaling Nvidia’s A100s, underscore a global race for technological supremacy. China’s resourcefulness in chip development might lead to surprising innovations, reshaping the balance in global tech capabilities. As 2024 unfolds, these developments will likely set new directions for the AI industry, impacting technology, politics, and consumer markets.
